Guide for decision making
We want to believe we make a decision based on the given problem and proposed solutions. However, we are shaped by what I refer to as genetic inertia. From the genetic materials passed from our ancestors over hundreds of thousands of years, we have adopted favorable behaviors for survival.
The first behavior is to conserve energy. The size of the human brain reflects this tradeoff. Neanderthals had slightly larger average brain sizes, around 1400 to 1500 cubic centimeters, compared to 1350. Evolution may have favored a more efficient brain that required less energy. The Science paper [2] informs that we pack 86 billion neurons, three times more than those of our primate cousins.
The second behavior is to be a part of the community. Early humans survived better when they worked together. Hunting, gathering, protecting one another, and caring for the injured all required collaboration, as demonstrated in team sports and strategic military operations.
The third behavior is the to avoid immediate pain. Our ancetors developed a strong drive to stay away from disease, predators, threats, dangerous organic matters. This tendency helped us survive in a world full of physical risks. Limited storage and the shorter life expectation made a long-term thinking a luxury.
Human life in the twenty-first century is different. Energy is more abundant than ever before. Careers today require the ability to persist through cognitive discomfort. Tasks such as doing homework, preparing for exams, or working long hours, submitting a manuscript all require a long-term sustain effort. This long-term effort was considered a luxury before the agricultural revolution which has been known to occur about 10,000 B.C., a small portion of the 300,000 years of ago from the pan-African origin of Homo sapiens [1].
We also live in relatively safe environments. Instead of fearing wild animals, we instead fear for tomorrow’s exams and work and the number of “likes” of a social media post the next, which has much less threat on the lives on the people. Thrid, Creative work often requires time alone with a subject. While collaboration remains important, deep individual focus is now just as necessary. The need for constant social interaction, especially on digital platforms, can break that focus and make less productive.
Many of the instincts that once ensured our survival may now interfere with good decision-making. That is why it is important to identify and understand them. By becoming more aware of when these natural tendencies influence our thinking, we can make better choices in modern life.
Minimize energy usage and cognitive overload
We tend to put a greater weight on the first information we receive. This is because it costs more energy to constantly reevalute our brain in each situation. Therefore, we go about the day from the first information we encounter and the rest is adjusted baesd on that. This is the basis of
anchordingused in negotiation and marketing.We tend to remember the peak and the end of an experience rather than the whole experience. Patients recall the process was painful when the end of the process was painful. This is known as the
Peak-end effect.Survivalship bias - engineers during WWI tried to improve the survivability of planes by reinforcing the areas that were hit the most. However, they did not realize that the planes that were hit in those areas did not return, so they should have reinforced the areas that were not hit.
Declinism - We see the past better than the future. The past doesn’t affect us. The future can kill us anytime. it’s important to be negative and prepare what’s to come.
Confirmation bias - We tend to see and hear what we want to hear. When we argue, we often try to look for the specific information. It is a shortcut when processing information. It’s much easier. No one wants to be wrong.
Accepted by others
Our lives begin by being cradle by another human being. A newborn must be loved and raised by another human being. In wars between tribes, choosing the side increaess the chance of survival, rather than being defending alone. It is important be accepted by others.
Selective perpection refers to seeing what we expected to see. In a single game, a fan would see more fouls from the other team. During a politica debate, one would see more faults from the other candiate based on the viwer’s political affiliation. Hence, the badnwagen effect also occurs because following the crowd, rather than being one being correct, may increase the chance of survival.
Avoid pain
We want to avoid pain from diseases, natural disastrous, and potential attack by animals and other human begins. Pain is associated with danger and potentially death. It is better to be paranoid for survival, just like the phrase, “Winter is coming” from the Game of Thrones series.
It is easier to look for evidence that supports our beliefs than to look for evidence that contradicts them and feel uncomfortable. This is commonly referred to as
Commitement bias.We try to convince ourselves that we are rational beings.
We tend to overestimate the likelihood of negative events. It prepares us for the future and enables us to take action before it happens.
We tend to consider our past as more positive as it was. We also consider the future as more negative than it is. The past is certain and the future is uncertain. Fear can be induced by uncertainty. This is known as the
negativity bias.We have the tendency to sell winning investments too early while holding onto losing investments for too long. This is particularly true for holding onto losing investments based on my experience. This is primarily due to the realization that one’s time and effrot have been wasted and face the consequence of the decision. We want to avoid the unpleasant feeling of regret. The regret is only materialized when the stock is sold because if it is not sold, then the stock can still go up. This is known as the Disposition effect.
We tend to form a greater affection after we do a favor for the person. It is also known as the Benjamin Franklin effect. The reason is that our brain attempts to rationalize that the time spent for the person isn’t wasted. Cognitive dissonance we want to reduce it, our feeling and action do not match. Since action is already done, we change the way we think about the other person that the person must be good.
We tend to support one’s choice which were not considered at the time of the choice. This effect is known as Choice-supportive bias . It could be nost just based on Cognitive Dissonance where action and thought. It is may be also due to memory decay.
sunk costs are already lost costs. We will most likely feel guilty or regretful if we don’t follow the plan. It’s the same of commitment bias.
Combined
We tend to find patterns with random events. We are meant to come up with a conclusion given a set of data points. For example, we might want to see the footsteps of an animal in the snow and guess the animal’s size and type. This is known as the
Aphophenia. Making inference, from the given data points, enables us to make a decision and take action based on the past behavior based on our already trained data (minimum energy)while this can also lead to incorrect conclusions. Also, this enables us to reduce uncertaintly, and thus reduce the fear of the unknown of the future (avoid pain).We tend to have positive judgments about objects that they think are reliable in light of their experiences, regardless of logic and validity. This is called the
Belief bias. This occurs because constantly evaluating the logic of a new idea is mentally exhausting. Second, being skepitcal of informaiton that contracts known believes enables living. For exmaple, it’s easier to spot potentially dangerous mushrooms if they contain a certain color. This allows quick decision making and also increases the chance of survival.
Other factors that influence our decision making
We like to buy things in a bundle because buying each indvidiual, we want to avoid the fear of the thought that our resources not being spent well.
We tend to think that a combination of events (a conjunction) is more likely to occur than one or both of the individual events alone. So, it’s better to provide more context for the reader. “Our app helps busy professionals save time by automating emails and scheduling, so you can reclaim 2 hours of your day” is better than “Our app helps you save time”. We humans didn’t need formal probability. We needed an accessible real-life scenario just than a number. It is another reason we are drawn to a particulalry story rather than just a number. So our brain considers this vividness and more plausible and thus likelyhood. We are better of surviving not recalling probabiltiy but rather having the speicifc shape, structure, and methods for survival.
An individual’s exposure to a certain stimulus influences their response to a subsequent prompt, without any awareness of the connection. Our brain is maliable and constnatly trained. For example, “Bye-now” effect is when you see the word “Bye” at the end of the magazine, we are more likely to purchase a new product.
We tend to value our own work because we want to avoid the unpleasant feeling that our time might have been not used well.** Hence, it’s important to recognize that no one’s time is wasted. People who made their origam valued 5 times more than other’s valuation. We irrationally value our efforts. So when someone creates an issue or pull request, it’s important to acknowledge their effort so that we value their effort. This is the IKEA effect. We want users to love the product because they have invested their time and thus capture the increased perceived value associated with the product. We constantly fear that we don’t hunt, our time is wasted.
Our decision making will be progressively lower at the end of the day. Be aware that the decision isn’t made by the end of the day. Have a full night sleep before.
References
Carina M. Schlebusch and others. Southern african ancient genomes estimate modern human divergence to 350,000 to 260,000 years ago. Nature, 546:293–296, 2017. URL: https://www.nature.com/articles/nature22336.
Kelly Servick. Breakthrough finding shows how modern humans grow more brain cells than neanderthals. Science, 2024. URL: https://www.science.org/content/article/breakthrough-finding-shows-how-modern-humans-grow-more-brain-cells-neanderthals.
Acknowledgements
I thank https://thedecisionlab.com/biases for the list of cognitive biases and their explanations.